Exbookie Want To Help The Players ....superbowl Pick!!!!

[ACE-ACE]

Exbookie Want To Help The Players ....superbowl Pick FEB 6 2005

I KNOW THIS IS EARLY....BUT....."MY LINE TELL ME TO BET THE GAME EARLY........


"MY LINE"....IS NOT THE REAL LINE...BUT WHAT THE TEAM SHOULD WIN BY.....BASE ON ....LINEOFF....TIME....PY....RY....T/O.....GIVE.....TAKE.....QB......RB....DEFENSE......OFFENSE....
RED ZONE.....COACHING.....MATCH-UP....AND MORE

MY LINE ON THE SUPERBOWL AS OF TODAY....

PHI
NE......-9......COULD HAPPEN

ATL
NE.....-5.......DONT THINK SO

ATL
PIT....-14 1/2.......THIS WOULD BE NICE

PHI
PIT....-10.......A PENNSYLVANIA BOWL.....

RIGHT NOW JAN 20.2005 YOU CAN BET THE SUPERBOWL

AT AFC -5 1/2....(GUARDIAN GUARANTY)

I SEE A LOT OF AFC-6 OUT THERE TOO

SO IF MY VALUE ARE RIGHT!!!!1

PHI VS NE-9..............IS A VALUE OF +3 1/2 POINTS
ATL VS NE-5..............IS A VALUE OF -1 POINTS
ATL VS PIT-14 1/2.....IS A VALUE OF +9 POINTS
PHI VS PIT-10...........IS A VALUE OF +4 1/2 POINTS

TO GET THE MUCH VALUE ON A SUPERBOWL IS A GREAT THING THIS TIME OF YEAR!!!!

I HAVE HANDICAP ALL POSSIBILITIES OF ALL THE GAME AND KNOW THAT I
WANT THE AFC.....

IF SOMETHING HAPPENS IN THIS WEEK GAMES ....YOU CAN ALWAY GO THE OTHER WAY AND DO A BIG MIDDLE

LET SAY NE GET IN AGAINST ATL......THE REAL LINE IS NE-9.....AND SOMETHING HAPPEN AND YOU START LIKING ATL
YOU GOT THE LINE AT AFC-5 1/2....NOW YOU CAN BET IT AT NFC+9....
A 3 POINT MIDDLE....IF YOU WANT

MY HOPE FOR BETTING IT NOW IS THE LINE WILL ONLY GO UP FROM HERE!!!


MY BET AFC(PIT OR NE)....FOR $5,000.00


THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY ? THIS ONE ....GET IT EARLY....


ACE

 

[ACE-ACE]

MY LINE ON THE SUPERBOWL AS OF TODAY....

PHI
NE......-9......COULD HAPPEN

ATL
NE.....-5.......DONT THINK SO

ATL
PIT....-14 1/2.......THIS WOULD BE NICE

PHI
PIT....-10.......A PENNSYLVANIA BOWL.....

RIGHT NOW JAN 20.2005 YOU CAN BET THE SUPERBOWL

AT AFC -4 1/2...(.PINNACLE)

I SEE A LOT OF AFC-6 OUT THERE TOO

SO IF MY VALUE ARE RIGHT!!!!1

PHI VS NE-9..............IS A VALUE OF +3 1/2 POINTS
ATL VS NE-5..............IS A VALUE OF -1 POINTS
ATL VS PIT-14 1/2.....IS A VALUE OF +9 POINTS
PHI VS PIT-10...........IS A VALUE OF +4 1/2 POINTS

TO GET THE MUCH VALUE ON A SUPERBOWL IS A GREAT THING THIS TIME OF YEAR!!!!

I HAVE HANDICAP ALL POSSIBILITIES OF ALL THE GAME AND KNOW THAT I
WANT THE AFC.....

IF SOMETHING HAPPENS IN THIS WEEK GAMES ....YOU CAN ALWAY GO THE OTHER WAY AND DO A BIG MIDDLE

LET SAY NE GET IN AGAINST ATL......THE REAL LINE IS NE-9.....AND SOMETHING HAPPEN AND YOU START LIKING ATL
YOU GOT THE LINE AT AFC-5 1/2....NOW YOU CAN BET IT AT NFC+9....
A 3 POINT MIDDLE....IF YOU WANT

MY HOPE FOR BETTING IT NOW IS THE LINE WILL ONLY GO UP FROM HERE!!!


MY BET AFC -4 1/2(PIT OR NE)....$5,000.00

UPDATE.....


THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY ? THIS ONE ....GET IT EARLY....


ACE

 

[mj23]

It seems like the # 4.5 is a real low # how can it be this low?? Where are they coming from with this #?

 

[ACE-ACE]

It seems like the # 4.5 is a real low # how can it be this low?? Where are they coming from with this #?

IT AT PINNACLE -4 1/2....GET IT NOW IT WILL NOT STAY THERE.....I WOULD OF BEEN HAPPY WITH 5 1/2....

 

[mj23]

Ace pinny just doesnt give steals away im trying to figure out where they are coming from?? Lets put it this way if you were setting the # where would you be?? AFC - 7.5 ??

 

[winbet]

betting AFC -4.5 is just a subtle way of betting Philly M/L

 

[savannahslim]

Ace-Ace

Looks good.

Thanks.

 

[ACE-ACE]

betting AFC -4.5 is just a subtle way of betting Philly M/L

THERE A LOT OF WAY TO PLAY IT.....GOOD POINT....

 

[Ice74]

AFC roles

Ace, I put a dime on the AFC -5 2 days ago at WSEX, needless to say I like the call.

 

[Publius]

I thought I understood, but now I'm confused. Are you are betting $5,000 on AFC to Win and $5,000 on AFC -4.5 (or -5.5)? Or are you just betting $5,000 on AFC minus the points whether it be -4.5 or -5.5?

 

[aceduecetrey]

MY LINE ON THE SUPERBOWL AS OF TODAY....

PHI
NE......-9......COULD HAPPEN

ATL
NE.....-5.......DONT THINK SO

ATL
PIT....-14 1/2.......THIS WOULD BE NICE

PHI
PIT....-10.......A PENNSYLVANIA BOWL.....

RIGHT NOW JAN 20.2005 YOU CAN BET THE SUPERBOWL

AT AFC -4 1/2...(.PINNACLE)

I SEE A LOT OF AFC-6 OUT THERE TOO

SO IF MY VALUE ARE RIGHT!!!!1

PHI VS NE-9..............IS A VALUE OF +3 1/2 POINTS
ATL VS NE-5..............IS A VALUE OF -1 POINTS
ATL VS PIT-14 1/2.....IS A VALUE OF +9 POINTS
PHI VS PIT-10...........IS A VALUE OF +4 1/2 POINTS

TO GET THE MUCH VALUE ON A SUPERBOWL IS A GREAT THING THIS TIME OF YEAR!!!!

I HAVE HANDICAP ALL POSSIBILITIES OF ALL THE GAME AND KNOW THAT I
WANT THE AFC.....

IF SOMETHING HAPPENS IN THIS WEEK GAMES ....YOU CAN ALWAY GO THE OTHER WAY AND DO A BIG MIDDLE

LET SAY NE GET IN AGAINST ATL......THE REAL LINE IS NE-9.....AND SOMETHING HAPPEN AND YOU START LIKING ATL
YOU GOT THE LINE AT AFC-5 1/2....NOW YOU CAN BET IT AT NFC+9....
A 3 POINT MIDDLE....IF YOU WANT

MY HOPE FOR BETTING IT NOW IS THE LINE WILL ONLY GO UP FROM HERE!!!


MY BET AFC -4 1/2(PIT OR NE)....$5,000.00

UPDATE.....


THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY ? THIS ONE ....GET IT EARLY....


ACE

Ace- I dont understand something:

You have New england +9 against NE and Atl +5 against NE.
Then you have atl + 14 against Pitt and Philly +10 against Pitt.

meaning in the NE game atl would be 4 pts lower than Philly, but in the Pitt game you have philly 4 pts lower than atl.

Is this right?

 

[ESQAJM]

I was listening to the ESPN radio station yesterday and they were interviewing someone from the company that sets the official line for the casinos for every football game. They were questioning him about the various matchups for the SB and what the line would be. His answers were:

Pitt -3 over Phil
NE - 4.5 over Phil
Pitt - 4.5 to 5 over Atlanta

I did not hear a line for the NE/Atlanta matchup. I was very suprised to hear that the lines would be so low. I exepected higher lines.

For approximately a week prior to yesterday my book had a SB line of AFC -7 over the NFC. I pulled up my book's website on my computer and the line had dropped to AFC -6. Within 2-3 hours afterwards it had dropped to -5.5 which is in line what this guy said on the radio.

If Ace is correct and the line will be around 8-9 it presents a great oppotunity
for anyone who likes the AFC in the SB. In addition it presents a great middle opportunity. I agree with Ace and feel the line will be over 7 and could be higher depending how Sunday's games play out.

I will bet 15 units on the AFC and look for a chance to middle the SB as I expect a line of anywhere from 7-10 points.
ESQAJM

 

[winbet]

Quote: acedeucetrey
meaning in the NE game atl would be 4 pts lower than Philly, but in the Pitt game you have philly 4 pts lower than atl.

Is this right?

Nobody said winning money was easy. Apart from their suicidal local bookies, Detroiter's obviously have a unique bent for beating around the bush. :thumbsup:

 

[winbet]

ESQAJM,
Quote: I agree with Ace and feel the line will be over 7 and could be higher depending how Sunday's games play out.

How can you think other than Atlanta being in the Final, the line will be over 7 not alone 10. If the Eagles win then depending how the Teams played( good or indifferent)the line will be Philly+2 to +3.

Betting AFC-4.5 is just sucking you into a Philly M/L bet without knowing who they will play in the Final, injuries etc. In other words putting your money down on intangibles. Because of the novelty, the books will take fortunes in what amounts to, future bets and not only will they have got money in the kitty but will then have the advanced knowledge of whats to come.

 

[ESQAJM]

Win: If NE or Pitt wins convincingly and dominates the other team the public will be all over the AFC In addition from my own observations I have found that the line usually moves up as the SB approaches. It's the biggest betting game of the year and the public will push up the AFC.

In addition if NE is -3 over Pitt at Pitt, don't you think they will be more than that at a neutral field against a team that is not as good as Pitt?

There are many scenarios that might play out. Most will depend on how the winner of both of Sunday's games dominate their opponent. But after analyzing all of the possibilities, I feel the worst that will happen is that if I want to get out of all or part of the bet, I will just bet the other side and lose the vig.
ESQAJM

 

[winbet]

ESQAJM,

It is your opinion that Pitt is better than Philly, not everyone's. By Ace and you betting the AFC -4.5, you are basically saying Philly will win on Sunday, because if they dont, the line will be anything from +6.5 to +8. So what the Books are trying to make people do in effect is a parlay ( as you yanks call it ) at better odds. If your wrong, you dont lose, just in a shitty position., win and you still have to beat the spread.

With punters learning all the time, bookies have to think up new ways of confusing them into what bookies always want, a player not knowing what he's betting on.

PS: ESQAJM, after reading that first sentence, it sounds like I am having a poke at you, what I mean is, from a books point of view.

 

[ACE-ACE]

I thought I understood, but now I'm confused. Are you are betting $5,000 on AFC to Win and $5,000 on AFC -4.5 (or -5.5)? Or are you just betting $5,000 on AFC minus the points whether it be -4.5 or -5.5?

at 1st I SAW IT AT -51/2.....BUT I FOUND IT AT -4 1/2.....SO ITS AFC-4 1/2

 

[ACE-ACE]

Aceduecentrey.....that Right.....its Just How It Work Out..

Its The Match-up Between The Two Teams That Give Me The Numbers

 

[ESQAJM]

Win: the best thing that can happen for my bet is for Atlanta to win Sun. That would make a SB line of a TD or more, giving me 2 key numbers in my middle. If Phil just squeezes by Atlanta with a weak effort, I think the line will start at -7 no matter who plays for the AFC. We will see next monday who is right.
ESQAJM

 

[THEBUFFROCK]

I agree Ace...............that is the way to go, get in early!